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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."