The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Could it be another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.

Ashley Perry
Ashley Perry

Samhällsanalytiker med bakgrund i statsvetenskap, fokuserad på demokratiutveckling och offentlig debatt i Norden.